The highly anticipated debut of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US might not be a slam dunk after all. While analysts still lean towards approval, whispers of a potential delay or even outright rejection are beginning to swirl, causing ripples of anxiety across the cryptoverse.
Leading the charge with a cautious outlook is Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas. While acknowledging a 90% chance of approval by January 10th, he warns of a 10% chance of the SEC throwing a wrench in the works, either by demanding more time or even delivering a crushing "no."
Seems the more likely scenario, according to Balchunas. The sheer amount of work poured into this process by both the SEC and ETF issuers, especially during the holiday season, makes a complete rejection sound almost unthinkable. As he aptly puts it, according to report by Cointelegraph.
Others, like Vetle Lunde of K33 Research, join the chorus of doubt, placing the odds of rejection at a mere 5%. However, the possibility, however slim, hangs heavy in the air, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the entire crypto market.
Should the SEC opt for the unthinkable and slam the brakes on spot ETFs, Balchunas predicts a legal maelstrom. Remember Grayscale's legal battle? It could be just the opening act of a much larger drama, with ETF issuers refusing to take "no" for an answer.
Adding fuel to the fire are public comments submitted to the SEC on the ETF filings. Some express outright opposition, citing concerns about Bitcoin's decentralized nature and its potential role in circumventing sanctions or empowering authoritarian regimes.