Standard Chartered Bank projects significant inflows of $50-100 billion into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) if approved this year, potentially propelling bitcoin's price to $200,000 by the end of 2025. The bank anticipates that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will sanction spot bitcoin ETFs imminently, drawing parallels to the transformational effect of gold ETFs on the gold market.
Comparing the prospective launch of spot bitcoin ETFs to the impact of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), introduced in 2004, Standard Chartered suggests that relative market caps indicate an estimated $34 billion inflow to bitcoin ETFs. However, the bank foresees the actual flow ranging from $50-100 billion in 2024, with higher estimations touching $130 billion.
Several ETF applicants, including VanEck, Galaxy, and Bitwise, predict substantial inflows ranging from billions to tens of billions within specific time frames. VanEck envisions $1 billion inflows in the initial days and $2.4 billion within a quarter, whereas Galaxy projects $14 billion within a year. Bitwise looks further ahead, forecasting a market size of about $72 billion within five years.
Standard Chartered views the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs as a pivotal moment in legitimizing institutional investor involvement in bitcoin. Drawing parallels with gold's performance after the introduction of gold ETFs, the bank predicts similar substantial price gains for bitcoin. It foresees these gains occurring within a shorter timeframe, estimating bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024 and potentially doubling to $200,000 by the close of 2025.
The bank also highlights the insights gleaned from gold and silver's ETF dynamics, suggesting potential parallels with expected bitcoin and ether price movements. Notably, silver's performance following the introduction of its ETF varied, suggesting potential market fluctuations for ether ETFs post-approval.
Standard Chartered's forecast underscores the potential magnitude of ETF-related inflows into cryptocurrencies and their consequential impact on market dynamics if approved by regulatory authorities.